The 2025 Mirror (aka ADV Wrapped)
Each December, we step back from our individual projects to look across the work as a whole to spot themes that cut across institutions, markets, and conversations. What questions kept resurfacing? What challenges felt newly acute? What dynamics seemed to shift quietly but meaningfully beneath the surface?
We share these reflections each year as The Mirror with two goals in mind: to inform what we observed across higher ed in the past year and to affirm what many leaders, marketers, and enrollment teams may have sensed firsthand but haven’t yet had the chance to fully articulate.
What follows are a few of the themes that stood out most clearly in 2025.
The sun is past midday on traditional student search. This year, we repeatedly heard a version of the same frustration: “We’re dissatisfied with student search and with the idea that bombarding students with 20 emails that look exactly like what they’re getting from other schools will somehow yield our class.”
Seven-figure contracts for large volumes of poorly fitting prospects may have been enough to secure enrollment in the past. Not anymore. Students are more selective with their attention, more skeptical of generic outreach, and more adept at tuning out noise that feels interchangeable.
Institutions need—and deserve—better ways of generating genuine prospective student interest. It begins with institutional positioning and extends into enrollment management tactics that prioritize relevance over reach. Volume alone is not a strategy. Look for more from us on this topic in 2026.
Outcomes define quality. Across every study we conducted this year, one pattern held firm: outcomes are the most powerful signal of institutional quality. Traditional indicators like rankings and selectivity consistently fall well below outcomes as signals of quality (even for elite institutions).
If this sounds obvious, consider this: a 95% job and grad school placement rate is no longer differentiating in 2025. It’s table stakes. More critical is establishing a reputation for preparing graduates for success and whether that success feels tangible, durable, and relevant.
In other words, reporting outcomes is necessary; being known for outcomes is something else entirely.
The ball rolled down the hill. Shaken by federal actions impacting research funding and international enrollment, many elite universities moved aggressively to shore up domestic enrollment and revenue. Duke went to its waitlist for the first time in years. Syracuse doled out eye-popping financial aid offers. Other Tier One institutions took actions that were individually small but collectively significant.
Institutions one rung below felt the pain as students they were counting on pulled their deposits or got plucked off waitlists. These Tier Two institutions subsequently went deeper into their pools and pulled from those beneath them. And on and on, the ball rolled down the hill.
The lesson is not about blame or surprise, but about recognizing how quickly pressure cascades through the enrollment ecosystem, and how important it is to plan for second- and third-order impacts.
International supremacy taken for granted. Part of the enrollment challenge this year came from federal decisions that discouraged or outright prohibited international students from studying in the US. Embedded in these decisions is the assumption that international students will continue to come regardless of obstacles because, well, we’re the best.
But a funny thing happens when you repeatedly signal that international students aren’t wanted: they start to believe you.
Meanwhile, institutions in Australia, China, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea have climbed up the international rankings and actively court global talent. The competitive landscape has shifted. For institutions—and especially graduate programs—that have long relied on international enrollment, domestic recruitment can no longer function merely as a backstop. It must be reexamined, strengthened, and taken seriously in its own right.
Looking Ahead
It’s not our usual practice to make predictions, but we believe strongly that, at some point, the pendulum will swing back on the public’s perception of the value of higher education.
We are tired of hearing business leaders say “you don’t need a degree” while holding MBAs and hoping their kid gets into Stanford. The data on the long-term value of a degree is clear and consistent. Eventually, reality has a way of reasserting itself.
The Best Thing We Heard All Year
During a visit to Southeast Community College (Lincoln, NE) we spoke with a student in the John Deere Tech program who was also studying to be an EMT paramedic. When asked why he was studying both, he explained:
“I live in a small town in Northwest Iowa where people have to wear multiple hats – volunteer fire, snow removal, EMT, etc. They do that as a side thing. So, I know that in order to really serve my community, I have to do more than work on tractors and combines, I have to be ready to help as an EMT when they need it.”
Wow. Maybe the kids will be alright.
Thank You
Thank you for reading and for your partnership in 2025. This is meaningful work we’re all engaged in, made all the more rewarding by collaborating with thoughtful colleagues like you. We’re looking forward to what the new year brings!